Republican lawmakers don't like odds of potential 7-1 Missouri congressional redistricting map

JEFFERSON CITY — Members of the Missouri House committee tasked with redrawing the state's eight congressional districts said Monday they were doubtful that any map favoring Republicans in seven of those districts could survive the approval process.

The committee heard testimony from several members of the public on a map proposed by Rep. Dan Shaul, a Republican from Imperial and chair of the committee. It would largely retain the current partisan alignment of Missouri, with two districts favoring Democrats and six favoring Republicans.

Asked by Missouri Right to Life Executive Director Susan Klein to "fight for a 7-1 map" and add another Republican seat, Shaul and other GOP members of the committee said such a proposal was risky given the possibility of court intervention.

"If a 7-1 map were to be challenged in court ... it doesn't necessarily go to federal court," Shaul said. "It could go to the Missouri Supreme Court. And I feel less confident there."

Shaul said lawmakers "have to do a risk assessment" and ask themselves "is it worth the risk for the reward?" Rep. Travis Fitzwater, a Holts Summit Republican, said he would like a 7-1 map but pointed to the need for a two-thirds vote in the House to put the approved map into effect in time for election filing deadlines.

Redistricting in Missouri:How the proposed map impacts southwest Missouri & congressional primary

The GOP is short of that two-thirds vote, meaning they will need agreement from Democrats to meet that mark. Gov. Mike Parson, a Republican, could call a concurrent special session to allow lawmakers to pass a map for quicker approval without that two-thirds vote, but has not indicated that he will do so.

"It's one thing to say we should make that happen, it's another thing to actually make that happen," Fitzwater said. 

Both Shaul and Rep. Ben Baker, a Neosho Republican, were blunt about the prospects of a 7-1 map in the Capitol's higher chamber, where the filibuster plays a prominent role in delaying debate and the Republican majority has seen consistent fractures.

"I don't think a 7-1 map will ever pass the Senate," Baker said.

Some Republicans see the once-a-decade redistricting process as a prime chance to take another seat for the majority party, which has seen increased vote shares in statewide races during recent elections.

Even federal figures are weighing in — U.S. Rep. Billy Long, who represents southwest Missouri and is running for U.S. Senate, wrote on Friday that he supported a 7-1 map.

"7 and 1 makes 8, 6 and 2 makes No Sense," Long wrote. "Missouri becomes more ruby red every year and yielding to the Democrats on our Congressional map makes no sense. What are they thinking?"

Under Shaul's map, House Bill 2117, the southwest 7th district would not include the entirety of Polk County and part of Taney County east of Branson, and expand to include all of Webster County

The House committee on redistricting will meet again Wednesday morning.

More:Springfield's House districts would change under tentative redistricting plans. Here's how.

Quade & Democrats file separate redistricting map    

Springfield's Minority Leader Crystal Quade filed another map on behalf of House Democrats last week.

The map's most significant changes are in the St. Louis area. The heavily Democratic 1st district in the city extends further north and west, while the 2nd district in St. Louis County includes only part of St. Charles County. The northern 6th district would also jut into the Kansas City-area Jackson County.

Southwest Missouri's 7th district would include the entirety of Taney County and part of Polk County under the map, which is House Bill 2324.

Though Democrats' exact map is unlikely to see consideration by the GOP-controlled House, Republicans' lack of a two-thirds majority means the party will have a role to play in determining how the debate plays out.

Redistricting in Missouri:State lawmakers kick off session to approve congressional map with clock ticking

Quade said last week her caucus will be "putting together a whole lot of asks" — including ones unrelated to redistricting — in an opportunity for the usually outnumbered minority party to apply leverage.

Their proposed map does not guarantee three Democratic seats, like Quade argued last week there should be in the state. But keeps the suburban 2nd district, which the party has attempted to wrest from Republican U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner in recent elections, competitive.

"The reality is in that the last election cycle, 40 percent of congressional votes went to Democrats," she said. "So we should have a 5-3 map if we're going to be truly representative of our state."

Quade said her party would be consistently offering amendments and alterations as debate continues on Republicans' proposed map.

Galen Bacharier covers Missouri politics & government for the News-Leader. Contact him at gbacharier@news-leader.com, (573) 219-7440 or on Twitter @galenbacharier.