Statistics v. Claimed Store Experience: Two Sides of Viewing Shoplifting Cases in San Francisco

A Walgreens store in San Francisco on Oct. 12, 2020. Photo by Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images.

By S. Priana Aquino

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – “Is there an epidemic of shoplifting by ‘organized gangs’’ in San Francisco? And does it prove that the state’s efforts at criminal justice reform have failed?” asks journalist Judd Legum of his Twitter followers, pointing out the increase in cases of crime is not reflected in city data.

In an article co-authored by research assistant Tesnim Zekeria and research intern, Rebecca Crosby, it’s noted that San Francisco shoplifting crimes are at its lowest since the collecting of this data had begun 45 years ago.

“The latest data from the San Francisco Police Department, which includes incidents through October, shows that there were 24,890 larceny thefts in 2021, which is a 13 percent increase from the same period last year,” the article states. “But the overall number of thefts remains well below the level of 2019, when there were 35,512 thefts through October.”

Despite what the data shows, people on Twitter questioned Legum’s argument.

“Such a massive flaw in your reasoning, and others have mentioned it: you are assuming that the information flow–in other words, the reports of shoplifting–have not been impacted at all by a feeling that reporting it is a total waste of time. You’re assuming reporting is static,” wrote one user.

Another responded, “I’ve experienced several instances personally where cops say, ‘do you really want to file a report? It doesn’t really make a difference.”

Another user asked “Why is every $5 item barricaded behind a locked case? The store wasn’t built this way; they were added at considerable expense. This is what you see with your own eyes if you actually live here.”

But what SF residents have been seeing is averse to what the data shows. While there has not been an increase in the number of reported thefts, there has been an influx of social media posts showcasing shoplifting in stores throughout the Bay Area.

The increase in concern over loss of products has recently been cited by Walgreens as the reason why they are planning to close five of its stores in San Francisco.

“Organized retail crime continues to be a challenge facing retailers across San Francisco, and we are not immune to that,” Walgreens said in October, announcing the closure of the five stores.

The company told the New York Times in May that “thefts at its stores in San Francisco were four times the chain’s national average, and… the scale of thefts had made business untenable.”

However, people including Legum have doubts over the truth of Walgreen’s statement.

Many see the issue of shoplifting as a scapegoat for Walgreen’s other possible reasons for their store closures. Further, the claims that Walgreens have made cast further doubt on the efforts of SF District Attorney, Chesa Boudin.

Legum writes that “instead of acknowledging that the data does not support claims of sharp increase of shoplifting in San Francisco, [a news outlet] shifted its focus on “unnoticed, unreported theft. These stories typically pin the blame on San Francisco Mayor London Breed, District Attorney Chesa Boudin, and the 2014 ballot initiative, Proposition 47.”

In a previous Vanguard article and according to ABC7 News, Data shows that Boudin has dramatically reduced the number of shoplifting cases he has chosen to prosecute since taking office in Jan. 2020.

Prosecutions for theft under $950 dropped from 70 percent under the previous DA, to 44 percent under Boudin in 2020. That number rose 6 percent by mid-June 2021.

About The Author

S. Priana Aquino is a rising Senior at the University of San Francisco, majoring in Business with minors in Legal Studies and Public Service & Community Engagement. Upon graduation, she hopes to attend law school and continue her work in uplifting and advocating for communities of color.

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5 Comments

  1. Keith Olson

    “Such a massive flaw in your reasoning, and others have mentioned it: you are assuming that the information flow–in other words, the reports of shoplifting–
    have not been impacted at all by a feeling that reporting it is a total waste of time. You’re assuming reporting is static,” wrote one user.
    Another responded, “I’ve experienced several instances personally where cops say, ‘do you really want to file a report? It doesn’t really make a difference.”
    Another user asked “Why is every $5 item barricaded behind a locked case? The store wasn’t built this way; they were added at considerable expense. This is what you see with your own eyes if you actually live here.”

    Umm yeah, what “people” are saying is pretty much the truth.

    However, people including Legum have doubts over the truth of Walgreen’s statement.

    Well there’s also “people” who run CVS, Target and most recently Safeway who are citing theft as a reason for closing stores and/or cutting hours.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/san-francisco-retailer-forced-to-change-hours-due-to-excessive-theft-fourth-chain-to-do-so/ar-AAQeFEq

     

  2. Alan Miller

    I predict all these stories about the giant conspiracy of corporations and cops and citizens will stop appearing in the Davis Vanguard once the recall election has passed.  But expect many more until then. Because . . . the purpose of opinion journalism isn’t to change minds?

    1. Keith Olson

      What, are you saying that the Vanguard is biased?

      That the Vanguard has a horse in the recall election?

      I see 7 Eleven is joining the party too as stated in my link above.

      So now we are to believe that five corporations are all in it together?

       

      1. David Greenwald

        Give this a read: https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/Here-s-what-the-people-behind-the-Chesa-Boudin-16616934.php

        I don’t think there is a conspiracy – but how do you reconcile the fact that stats don’t show a huge increase in crime in SF? Are you going to argue that there is suddenly after 2019 a massive underreporting of crime that appeared at just the same time there was actually a massive surge in crime? Or maybe there is something else behind it – and I suspect the real answer isn’t a conspiracy but rather that a drop in sales in certain locations made the offset of the prevailing crime rate no longer pencil out.

    2. Bill Marshall

      8.7…

      But, at even odds, would not take the bet… there will always be ‘le cause celebre’… ou, ‘de jour’… it is what it is…

      Sometimes I wonder if some of the ‘giant conspiracies’ asserted by ‘progressives’, aren’t just the flip side of the ones touted by Q-anon…

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